Artemis surface stress test -- hypothesis tests ================================================= H1 -- pre-fix failure clustering (Wald-Wolfowitz runs test) H0: pass/fail outcomes are independently ordered (no clustering). Observed runs = 26 (expected under H0 = 26.00, sd = 3.50) z = 0.000, p = 1.00e+00 -> fail to reject H0 at alpha=0.05: failures are not serially clustered. H1b -- pre-fix outcome vs. trial/write order directly (Wilcoxon) H0: trial index is drawn from the same distribution for PASS/FAIL (complements H1: the runs test only catches consecutive-value clustering, not a general rank-order trend). W = 332.0, p = 0.715 -> fail to reject H0 at alpha=0.05: outcome is not associated with write order. H2 -- pre-fix failure vs. disk location (Wilcoxon rank-sum test) H0: logical block number is drawn from the same distribution for PASS and FAIL trials (failure does not depend on location). W = 505.0, p = 0.000 -> REJECT H0 at alpha=0.05: failure IS associated with LBN. Secondary check -- sibling position (0/1/2) vs. outcome (chi-squared) chi-sq = 0.790, df = 2, p = 0.674 -> fail to reject H0: outcome is not associated with sibling position. H3 -- did the fix change the pass rate (two-proportion test) H0: pre-fix and post-fix trials share the same true pass rate. Pre-fix: 25/50 = 50.0% Post-fix (pooled, 3 arches): 150/150 = 100.0% chi-sq = 81.20, df = 1, p = 2.04e-19 95% CI on the difference in pass rate: [-0.652, -0.348] -> REJECT H0 at alpha=0.05: the fix DID CHANGE the pass rate.